Inflated surveys numbers missed the target

The lack of voter turnout in the referendum questioned the credibility of research agencies, which measured the pulse of the public in the wake of last Sunday’s vote. Instead of the predicted minimum of 750,000 voters, up to the optimistic forecasts of meeting the necessary turnout, the turnout of the citizens stopped at 36.7 percent, or about 660,000 Macedonian citizens who used their right to vote.

Marketing experts say several reasons have influenced the inexact measurement, which exceeds the allowed statistical error of three percent plus/minus.

“First, a significant number of respondents claimed they would go out and vote against the agreement, which they obviously did not do. We are talking about a percentage that ranges from 20 to 35 percent, depending on the polls or 100-120,000 citizens. Most of them decided to stay home, realizing that boycotting had more chances to bring down the referendum. Secondly, the polls were mostly made in the middle of the campaign when President Gjorge Ivanov and VMRO-DPMNE still did not declare themselves so directly that they were conspiring to boycott the referendum. And you yourself saw Ivanov saying loud and clear that he will not vote in the middle of the United Nations headquarters in New York, while Hristijan Mickoski and Aleksandar Nikoloski in the last days before the referendum sent clear messages to boycott the name referendum. Third, most of the polls also missed the calculations involving the Albanian voting body. According to the estimates, about 215-220,000 Albanians used their right to vote, while surveys estimated a minimum of 250 thousand. And fourth, the agencies in our country generally measure the ratios, ratings and give a realistic perception before the elections, but it is very difficult to measure the turnout because nobody knows for sure how many people live in Macedonia. The pollsters examine those who are in the country, and not the fictitious ones on the list, which are not physically present. If we agree that there are about 1.3 or 1.4 millions of people in the country, you still cannot remove the percentage of 1.8 million registered voters,” says Nikola Spasov, director of the Rating agency, who conducted a poll only on the question of supporting the EU and NATO, and not about the referendum turnout.

The PR expert Igor Atanasov says research agencies use techniques and methodologies that are autochthonous to each of them and do not deviate, that is, they did not take into account the things that influenced the possible turnout, above all the large number of expatriates.

“It is obvious that the polls were inflated, and the level of statistical error was enormous, which in some ways influenced the behavior of the government that felt comfortable, satisfied and at ease. The agencies did not take into account that many of the Albanians are absent, which we suppose would support the referendum, as well as the Macedonians who are temporarily working abroad. The main problem is in the unedited Voters List and in the lack of records that are here and who is not in the country,” said Atanasov.
He reiterated once again that the weak campaign also had influence on the turnout, in which the least discussed subject was the name agreement with Greece, as well as the benefits of our European integration, but mostly focused on the unfulfilled promises of the government, the weak human resources policy, the scandals in the government etc.

“The campaign was personally against Zoran Zaev and against the government, as if it was about voting for political parties, not in a referendum,” concluded Atanasov.

Goran Adamovski