Elections are coming, presidential ambitions are increasing
President Gjorge Ivanov begins the last year of his second presidential term on May 12, after he marked the fourth anniversary of his re-election (on April 27, 2014) with another cohabitation precedent – nominating Dimitar Bogov for second term as governor of NBRM. Considering that the sixth presidential election in the country is supposed to be held in the last 60 days of the incumbent president’s term, the political parties are starting their preparations for the contest that will draw the mood after the change of power on “Ilindeska” street on a local level, as well as after the change in VMRO-DPMNE’s leadership.
The initial engagements of the parties are aimed at adjusting the election regulations, so the plan is to apply the new rules in September, while the SEC will start functioning according to a new concept and in a new composition – as an administrative body in which the parties will delegate their observers six months before regular elections. In parallel, political circles are gradually starting to bid for possible presidential candidates, although the lobbying will be strengthened in late summer, as the domestic political focus is currently on Brussels, pending a meeting of the European Council and the NATO Summit.
Given the experience so far, which showed that the ruling party is always in a more favorable position when the head of state is elected, among other things because of the greater coalition potential, unofficial information indicates that the number of candidates for the presidency is constantly increasing in the camp around “Bihać” street. Stevo Pendarovski, who was SDSM’s candidate in 2014 and had relatively good results, is also one of the more serious possible solutions for the upcoming elections if the Social Democrats do not decide to go with a “hard” party solution. In such a case, however, it is not excluded that Defense Minister Radmila Sekerinska could join the presidential race.
At a recent parliamentary session for an interpellation against the government, former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski even “promoted” the incumbent SDSM leader and Prime Minister Zoran Zaev as a pretender for the presidency. However, SDSM interlocutors say that Gruevski’s statement is more a political provocation and a pulling analogy with the resettlement of Branko Crvenkovski from the premiership of the presidency in 2004 than Zaev would have the ambition to transfer from “Ilindenska” to Vodno.
Deputy Prime Minister Koco Angjusev and Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov, as well as several businessmen, including Trifun Kostovski, are also mentioned as candidates for the presidential candidacy from the ruling party.
Therefore, the competition in the VMRO-DPMNE camp is much smaller, where it is currently preoccupied with intra-party turmoil and restructuring. Also, due to the estimates that with Ivanov’s departure from the presidency the period of cohabitation for SDSM will end, for the time being the opposition couloir as a possible candidate for the head of state mentions Trajko Slaveski, university professor and former finance minister. After the departure of Gruevski from the helm of the VMRO-DPMNE, he returned to the party’s vice-presidential office.
The estimates are that, despite the so-called certainty of the presidential election cycles, the forthcoming elections will be a big test for both SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE, as well as for parties from the Albanian political camp with the largest changes in the elections in the 2016 and 2017 elections. From that aspect, it is not excluded the possibility of a joint appearance of SDSM and DUI as partners in the ruling party, given the cooperation agreement that the two parties had in the local elections, after DUI received the speaker’s seat in parliament for the first time. Also, before the last presidential election, DUI insisted on a consensus candidate with VMRO-DPMNE and did not join the presidential race after its request was not accepted.
It is estimated that neither SDSM nor VMRO-DPMNE is unconcerned with the kind of candidate profile the party will run with in the presidential election, which will in fact be a prelude to the parliamentary elections, which should be held in its regular term by the end of 2020. The nominations will of course be influenced by the outcome of the political processes that are ahead, primarily from the summer summits of the EU and NATO. Thereafter, the announcement is that the definitive selection of candidates will have intra-party debates and more polls for the rating of candidates for the presidency.