Gruevski’s escape and the myth of the EU

Zdravko Saveski
Political scientist and member of Levica

Nikola Gruevski’s escape brought delegitimation of the government in the last (and strongest) ground. Many were willing to forgive the rule of the same, perhaps even worse in terms of the previous government, but expected Gruevski to get what he deserved, to end up in jail for his corrupt rule. There were fears that corrupt leaders would cut a deal and that Gruevski would flee from justice. So when it actually happened, the government lost that little legitimacy that it had left in the eyes of many of its non-clientelist supporters. Of course you don’t have to worry for those others, for the clientelist supporters. As long as they draw personal benefit from the government, they will fully support it. But can SDSM (or anyone else) rule in the long run only with the support of clientelists?

With the escape, Gruevski ceased to be just a Macedonian problem. He also became a Hungarian and a European problem. In Hungary, under Viktor Orban’s autocratic rule, granting Gruevski asylum to any normal Hungarian citizen is another indication of the corruption of their government and raises the question: will their country turn into a refuge for right-wing autocrats across Europe and beyond?

The “Gruevski” affair is also a serious European problem, as it builds on the wider EU problem with Hungary (and Poland), which largely reveals the EU’s inability to act according to its proclaimed goals. If the EU cannot order its member Hungary not to hinder the rule of law in the candidate country for membership Macedonia, and if the EU cannot provide democracy and the rule of law in its member states, how will it affect the confidence in the EU? And between its citizens and among the citizens of the candidate countries? If this is added to the recent departure of one of the wealthier members, the United Kingdom, and which will be reflected on the power of the EU to help its poorer members, what will remain of the European dream in that context?

NATO washed their hands from the “Gruevski” affair. Jens Stoltenberg reduced the problem to a bilateral issue between Macedonia and Hungary. Regardless of the fact that Hungary is a member of NATO and no matter how NATO is spreading propaganda that they were committed to democracy and the rule of law. Stoltenberg did not direct any kind of condemnation, nor any kind of repercussion to Orban. After all, NATO does not criticize Hungary on the many other violations of democracy and human rights that are happening there. It would be naive to expect it to be different on this issue. For NATO democracy is an empty word, which they wave around whenever they need it to fulfill their goals.

It’s a bit different with the EU. The EU cannot categorically claim that they don’t care about democracy. They know how to deprive it of its essence, it has happened many times, but NATO’s lack of interest in democracy is at least not as expressed in the EU institutions. The EU did react, to be honest. EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn tweeted that Gruevski’s asylum deserves further explanations from the Hungarian authorities. The European Parliament took more explicit action. It did not vote for the extradition of Gruevski from Hungary, as many Macedonian media published. The Ep has no such competencies. The EP, in its report on Macedonia, adopted the stance of “expecting Hungary to act strictly in line with relevant national and international laws through a positive reply to this request” for extradition.

And it will all end here. There may be some more or less harsh condemnation of Hungary. But that the EU has the mechanism to provide Gruevski’s extradition from one of its members – it’s wishful thinking. Even when there is political will, as in the case of the European Parliament, to stand in the way of undemocratic practices in member states, the EU does not have an effective mechanism to implement it. Is it contrary to what propaganda makes you believe? Yes, it is the opposite, but it does not make it less true. Three months ago, the European Parliament announced a war on the Orban regime, urging the EU to activate Article 7 of the EU Treaty, which provides for the introduction of sanctions against Hungary, which may include the deprivation of Hungary’s right to vote.

What is happening to this, three months later? Nothing. As expected. In order for the European Parliament to punish a member state for disregarding democratic and European values, all member states should vote in favor, with the exception of the state that is to be sanctioned. If only one member state opposes it- so much of the sanctions. In reality, this means that it is enough for only two member states (of as many as 28) to be taken over by autocratic governments and the full power of the EU to implement democratic standards falls into the water. And that’s what is happening right now in the EU. Authoritarian authority in Poland defended authoritarian rule in Hungary, as Hungary previously protected Poland. And, the democratic forces in the EU have nothing left except to wave their resolutions, which mean nothing in reality.

So, because of all of this, forget about Gruevski’s extradition. The EU is powerless to protect democratic standards in its member states. It is only necessary that two of the 28 member states be conquered by the authoritarian forces for the EU to be paralyzed. And the harshest words of condemnation won’t not matter when they are not accompanied by action. The only variable in this case is whether someone in Macedonia will take responsibility for Gruevski’s escape, or no one would care? And concerning this, the government wants to rule irresponsibly, but the question is whether we will allow them to behave this way?

The EU’s inability to protect democratic standards in its member states is an extremely important issue for us. Do you remember Zoran Zaev’s whip? His desperately awful statement (one of many) still gave the desired effect. How many citizens have decided to support the referendum, hoping that after joining the EU, someone will really come from there with a whip and will force the government in Macedonia to work properly. Where is this whip now in Hungary? It is a country that has been a NATO member for 20 years and is a member of the EU for 15 years. How does it not exert a positive influence on Hungary? Well, Hungary has not been a part of NATO and the EU since yesterday! Why are democratic standards not only disrespected in this longstanding member of NATO and the EU, but are also getting lower and lower? And why are democratic standards there far lower now than when that country was not a member of NATO and the EU?

The “Gruevski” affair has uncovered things to their harsh reality. The scandal revealed the government, which either cut a political deal with VMRO-DPMNE, which predicted Gruevski’s escape, or proved to be absolutely incapable of anticipating and preventing his escape. There is no third option. In both cases, there should have been resignations from the government, but the government, revealing itself even more, refused to act in accordance with democratic standards. But the revealing does not end there. The Gruevski affair has also unveiled the EU’s inability to ensure compliance with democratic standards in its member states. That, in turn, showed that Zaev’s whip is nothing but a false hope of the masochistic apathetic mind. In those EU Member States where there are high democratic and social standards, it is not because of the EU, but because their citizens have struggled for those standards on their own. If we want those standards in Macedonia as well, we should stop having false hopes for some whips and saviors. We will live as good as we will fight and, consequently, as much as we will deserve.