Will Trump win again?

Petar Arsovski

So far, the dominant doctrine of who wins the US presidential race has always been related to the economy. Ever since Bill Clinton, who had that famous saying – “It’s the economy, stupid”, the performance of the US business was directly related to the outcome of the presidential race. Whether it’s right or wrong, voters in the United States directly connect the president with their own personal, even state welfare.

As the initial election for presidential candidates comes up, such analyzes will become increasingly important in predicting who could be the one to take the Oval Office in the White House. So far, Democrats have three favorites, out of which only Joe Biden, according to ratings, poses a serious threat to Trump. Trump, of course, leaves nothing to chance, so he’s already in a serious negative campaign against Biden, who, apart from the fight against the president, is also fighting for support in his own party.

If one follows this economic logic, it seems like Trump would again win the presidential race in 2020. The good performance of the US economy, the GDP growth, the continued decline in unemployment rate, and wage increases look like indicators that Trump would win in 2020, with a significant difference. However, something here “doesn’t add up”. Trump has one of the lowest ratings in history, which is intuitively an indication that he should not be seen as such a definitive winner in the upcoming presidential race. Right after his first victory (that is, defeat because his opponent had about three million votes more), Trump’s ratings went down and stayed down for almost his entire presidential term. Thus, he enters the race for a second term with a seriously low rating, with a lot of controversy, and, let’s not forget, a threat of impeachment or worse. So how come predictions about the election outcome still favor him?

First, I think that the model that connects the presidential race only to the economy only needs to be reconsidered. This model is a historical one: instead of the actual current ratings, it is more linked to historical data and global variables that predict what the general electorate’s mood will be when the presidential election comes. Thus, this model gives Trump advantage over two major variables. The first is the fact that he is the current President, which historically gives him the advantage, because voters in the United States more often vote for the current than for a new president. The second is the performance of an economy that looks good. But, as has been shown in recent analyzes, for example, “Political Behavior”, the economy in the last two terms is not the driving force of the voting behavior. This difference, that is independence from the economic parameters, began even during Clinton’s term, intensified during Bush Junior was President, while during Obama’s term analysis show that the economy is no longer a significant variable in predicting the fate of presidential races.

Second, Trump’s numbers, even the ones for the economy, are not so good. Not only does the good performance of the US economy not reflect itself in Trump’s significant advantage, which still has a rating far lower than it should have given the overall economic indicators, but also consumer confidence, fiscal consolidation, and overall confidence in the economy is not great. So, I think the US economy will not have a significant impact on the presidential race. More questions of multicultural society, immigration, world position, and anti-establishment mood of voters are those that move the ratings of the current president.

Following these parameters, in the interest of truth, Trump remained religiously consistent. He persistently, despite the entire opposition, insists on a trade war with China, aggressive relations with NATO, an exclusive immigration policy, sharp attacks on opponents, and so on. This consolidates his party base, but at the same time mobilizes his opponents. That’s exactly what no model can predict with certainty – Character. Trump mobilizes: he keeps his supporter close, but at the same time mobilizes those who think that he is the worst thing that has happened to politics in US history. His assistants wake up at 5 in the morning to check if he “tweeted” something uncontrollably that morning. The prosecutor is still investigating his behavior with Russia. Senators are considering impeachment. The Special Prosecutor is just beginning to investigate his ties with Moscow. I think that Trump, as a character, will have much more influence on the outcome of the presidential race, than Trump as president.

In the end, I think it is still too early to judge the outcome because Trump surprised us all with the good result in the previous presidential elections. While coming off of the escalator in the Trump Tower in New York, and announcing his candidacy, he seemed banal and sketchy self-confident. He still looks like that, but now as President. We will see if he would climb the escalator and quietly go into history, or win a second, perhaps even more controversial presidential term.

Views expressed in this article are personal views of the author and do not represent the editorial policy of Nezavisen Vesnik