We will be stuck like Macedonia…

Erol Rizaov

We will be stuck on the European path like Macedonia, Turkey and some other countries if we do not make a compromise with Kosovo. This statement by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, given after his meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel, would have exploded as an atomic bomb not only in Serbia, but across the region, if it was said a year, or two, ago by any relevant Serbian politician. It would have been that great treachery, signing capitulation, demolition of the foundations of the Serbian state, twisting the faith, handing over the enemy to the holy Serbian country, losing territory, almost as much as Macedonia, trampling on the dignity of the Serbian people. Today, this is a reality, even when the highest Serbian officials, who have come out of the politics of Seselj and Milosevic, say this. Political leaders who came to power on the wings of nationalism, and who held their citizens for years in the Balkans waiting room on the road to progress, seem to have finally learned what a compromise is for joining the EU. They themselves say that they are ready to swallow a toad. Is that so?

Europe does not trust words. It does not want to import conflicts among future members. Brussels seeks a clean situation with signed agreements and good-neighborly relations that are being implemented. It wants many other things for those who want to play and compete in the Premier League. At first glance, it is not very popular for the Serbian president to make such a statement, that there must be a compromise with Kosovo, especially before the very important elections that Belgrade will win. Or Vucic is too strong and confident in victory, or some surveys hidden in the drawer say that the Serbs are sick and tired of the Holy Land of Kosovo, and from the suffering and wars for Kosovo. It looks like they want less of what has been long lost. President Vucic asked Serbs: What would we not get if we did not compromise with Albanians? And, of course, he answered the question himself. We will be stuck like Macedonia, Turkey and other countries that, due to political disputes, are stuck in the process of joining the Union. In case we do not reach an agreement with Kosovo, we will create a “natural wall” that cannot be penetrated. Things in life have changed, the lives of people change, we have to think about our children and their future. Yes, this was said personally by Aleksandar Vucic, the President of Serbia. If you have not heard or read it, look for it and see for yourselves.

In Serbia, critics of autocratic rule do not trust Vucic at all. There are many reasons for this, and among other things, the biggest ones are the same things that Macedonia survived during the regime of Nikola Gruevski, of which it still suffers consequences. The reason for Macedonia and Serbia being stuck is not only due to relations with neighbors, but also because of the stopped democratic processes inside the countries, due to organized crime, close relations between power and the mafia, because of the plunder of state property and citizens, due to endemic corruption, due to hypocrisy to Europe, due to the anti-Western and anti-American campaign of close followers and government advisers.

Stalled roads to Europe, both in Serbia and Macedonia, had long been about to clear Vucic and Gruevski, the two most influential politicians. President Aleksandar Vucic resembles the great Serbian epic hero Marko who arrived late in Kosovo, and Nikola Gruevski, the former Macedonian Prime Minister, looks more like a loser who brought the Trojan horse to the Danaans in the middle of Skopje. Vucic now says in his statements “it is never too late”, things have changed, and Gruevski is facing court every day with charges of multiple crimes.

Aleksandar Vucic’s readiness to compromise with Kosovo has a very instructive point for Macedonia, Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and opposition leader Hristijan Mickoski. With the changed cards in life, and the concerns about the future of our children is already known, the political obstacles of the stalled countries are well known, Turkey negotiates, then doesn’t negotiate, it will be 20 years with the EU, and Macedonia is a 12 year-old candidate for EU membership. The conditions that need to be met during the negotiations are also known. What is not well-known in the Balkans that Vucic seems to have understood well, and here is the main message that is not yet visible, and that is a compromise. A compromise agreement means that one party cannot get it. Therefore, those who make compromises say that it is difficult and painful because they make traps, always with the motive of giving up because of higher interests. So both Serbia and Kosovo must make some concessions. At this moment, it is estimated, and these are not just Vucic’s estimates, that Kosovo is less prepared for concessions than Serbia. This is Vucic’s trump card for future relations with the EU, Serbia is not to blame if there is no compromise with Kosovo, which, as a young country, is trapped in birth pains.

Serbia’s advantage over Kosovo in comparison with Macedonia and Greece is high, since Kosovo is not a member of the EU and is far behind Serbia, which is already negotiating with the EU for membership. Macedonia has been holding 25 years of negotiations, some still mention talks, with a regular EU member and one of the founders of NATO, an influential country in the world with strong ties to the power centers that govern the world, a difficult negotiator with long-standing animosity towards the Republic of Macedonia, and with thick bad historical plaques on both sides. What is similar with Serbia and Kosovo is that Greece is less prepared for a compromise than Macedonia, and skillfully changes its red lines every day showing it as concessions. Zaev’s readiness to geographical addition of the name Republic of Macedonia, which is a great leap, is conditioned by Greece with constitutional changes that cannot be passed in the Parliament. The pressure is set for Macedonia to be guilty of the possible failure of the negotiations. If Greece is truly prepared to compromise, it will accept with both hands an international agreement on a geographical addition with a signature of the UN, which is a much stronger guarantee of constitutional changes. According to the current announcements by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Greece demands changes not only in the Constitution, but also in the spelling and grammar of the Macedonian language, in the linguistic science that is applied in Macedonia and the whole world. Greece demands that the name of the state be written with a geographical determinant in a way that is considered illiterate in primary schools. It’s no longer a compromise; it’s new blackmail.

Carl Bildt’s efforts, who is a prominent European politician, co-chairman of the European Council on Foreign Policy, for the strong commitment of powerful EU states to reach a compromise on the name, because without that, the EU’s strategy for the Balkans will collapse, from day to day show as necessary in the negotiations between Greece and Macedonia, in order for a mutually acceptable solution to be possible, which means concessions on both sides. So far, there is no such thing, except for the good start in Davos. There are just encouraging, but cautious statements by European leaders, and the euphoric praise of the Brussels High Authority. That is not enough to unstuck Macedonia.