The Date

Aleksandar Krzalovski

The day has come for another long-awaited summit of the EU, or a meeting of the heads of the member states and their governments. But we already know the outcome we have been expecting, yesterday (June 18), the foreign ministers failed to make a decision for starting the accession negotiations with Macedonia with the EU. Today, (or tomorrow) this conclusion will only be confirmed, ie it is unlikely that there will be any significant changes, nor that the formulation of the conclusion will at least improve.
And the conclusion is that the EU Council, due to the very short time and the importance of the topic, will return to the issue in order to reach a clear and crucial decision as soon as possible, and not later than October this year. Before that, the Prespa Agreement and the Treaty with Bulgaria were warmly welcomed, and the European Commission’s recommendation to start negotiations and its positive assessment of the progress achieved and the achievement of the conditions identified by the Council were noted.
The first impressions of such a conclusion/decision come as they usually do – mixed. What dominates now is disappointment, one of the many coming from Europe, while the more sober response is that this was more or less expected.
We have gotten used to the disappointment from Europe long time ago even in such situations, when it is kind of unnecessary, and in part irresponsible, senior government officials spread unfounded optimism and hope, when messages from EU officials are not exactly such, this disappointment is even greater. It’s nice, being optimistic and all, having hope and having the will to fight for a successful outcome up to the last moment, but it increases the expectations of the citizens, so “releasing the air from the balloon” may turn out to be more painful and it may come much sooner. Now we can only conclude that this is only one of the series unfavorable (and at least according to our conviction, unjust) EU decisions towards our country… after not recognizing the country as independent, despite the clear recommendation of the Badinter Commission that the criteria have been met, then the Lisbon Declaration (which was to give up the name Macedonia), the decision of the NATO summit in Bucharest not to receive an invitation for membership (Greece’s veto) , so that all decisions of the same Council of the EU will not start negotiations, despite the conclusions of the European Commission (EC) that we have met the criteria since 2009.
On the other hand, estimates have been confirmed since the Berlin Summit in late April, that a favorable decision will not be reached for our country this June. It turned out to be unjustified and the announcements and hopes that this will happen as soon as July, or, of course, during the summer. Now, yet again, they are bargaining with the October mention in the conclusion, as a “done deal” and that the famous “date”, when the negotiations really do start, is going to be in December this year.
But is it so? I would like to believe that it is very likely to hold the first meeting, which will formally start the negotiations in December, but I am not as optimistic as the prime minister and the competent ministers.
One of the reasons is that their overemphasized optimism is not enough to finish the job, so I think it is better for them to come up with more realistic estimates and statements than to increase the citizens’ expectations.
Secondly, the conclusion states that the they are aiming at making a decision in October, but – it is not guaranteed that even then the EU will reach such a decision (as it actually happened now, even though in June last year they had even a tougher formulation that they would decide on this issue this June); nor has there been any indication that the decision that will eventually bring it will be positive, ie. that it will really confirm the date for December!
Third, while for years at such EU councils when deciding not to accept the EC’s recommendation to start accession negotiations, the only country that was indicated as an opponent of such a decision – was Greece. Now it’s not a secret that many countries are opposed to the opening of accession talks, most often France and the Netherlands, but in this case it turned out that it was our dear friend Germany (as they all call on “technical reasons”, that is, it’s time for the Bundestag to review the EC report, but the familiar technique in diplomacy is that when you’re against something, and you don’t want it, or it’s not “polite” to say it, then you sabotage the process, that is, delay “saying it”, until the affected ones understand what you want to tell them without even saying it). And the others mentioned beside them are Denmark, and since yesterday Cyprusas well (because of an entirely different reason… their problem with Turkey, concerning new oil fields in the region). While Germany is believed to “process” the EC report and will make a favorable decision for our country in September (which is why October is now mentioned in the conclusion), it is not certain that other countries will be convinced by then.
Fourth, did we really do everything we could and what we were supposed to do, in order to deserve a positive decision? For instance, the law on SPO was mentioned as one of the conditions, and the government and the opposition did not gather the strength to reach an acceptable compromise on time. And now the French ambassador mentions it as a condition for a positive decision in October. Let’s not make excuses if an appropriate law is not adopted by then. Furthermore, the EU’s report is not as positive as it is presented to be.
On the contrary, according to the Institute for European Policies and as is clearly evident from their charts with grades across all chapters, this is the third worst report we have of all eight since such comparisons are made (since 2009). It is true that this Government has been improving for the last two years (the worse reports are the previous two), but we have not yet returned to the 2011 level (when we had the best report), and stop claiming that we are first with the readiness to start the negotiations.
Fifth, and also related to the criteria, I, as a person who has spent a great deal of his career working with the Dutch, believe in their realistic and fair assessment of the situation in our country. And I believe in their unreserved support for our EU membership, but based on real achievements. We agree in this with Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov. Now, just such are their observations that “we are not yet at the required level” or “there’s more work to be done” to start negotiations. France is in a similar position as well. This may mean that we can get new conditions in October (even if we can solve the SPO issue by then).
Furthermore, this summer will be used by the EU for the constitution of the new European Parliament (after the elections held in late May) and then for negotiations between several parliamentary groups to elect the new composition of the European Commission. By October, the names of the new commissioners will probably be known (or will be already selected), and it is unlikely to be Federica Mogherini and Johannes Hahn, or they will not be on the same positions as now. Instead of open supporters of enlargement, it is more likely that those positions will be filled by those who better reflect the outcome of the European elections, that is, people that are more neutral concerning that issue (and there may not even be Commissioner for Enlargement). A lot of things will be different, and much clearer by October.
For all these reasons, we need to be moderate optimists (if not pessimists) that a positive decision is waiting for us in October. I am still optimistic about our EU integration, and I believe that things will be moving in the right direction, and I am not bothered much with such EU decisions (if there is no date). And I think that we should not be so attached to the long-awaited date and constantly wait for the push from the EU. But that’s because I base my optimism on the belief that we (even without the EU) can achieve the standards necessary for EU membership (including economic prosperity), and I believe that the EU is thus “stalling” us – because they also want us to demonstrate that we are valuable for membership in their club. Unfortunately, the dominant opinion in our country, including among the ruling majority, is that without the push from the EU, we are unable to move forward by ourselves. And, even worse, this attitude/conviction has defeating consequences that are already evident, with most of the young people who have already declared or have already decided on careers outside of Macedonia, or for those who would stay, with the main ambition for working in some of the state-owned institutions. This will unlikely take us to the EU.
But let’s be optimistic, we are on the right track and the EU’s conclusion is better than it could have been, and leaves room for a positive decision in October, and the beginning of the accession talks in December. And even if it doesn’t happen this year, it will happen next year or in two years… We should not be so bothered with – the date!